D Others R
31,401 9,683 18,106
In 2008, after two days, the total raw vote lead was 16,000, and it was 60-24.
So no wave, but still a substantial Democratic lead, and 7 points above registration. Democrats have turned out well above 2008 (27,000 vs. 31,000) but GOP has done even better relative to four years ago (11,000 vs. 18,000), albeit still well behind.
Democrats had an 83,000 raw vote lead at the end of two weeks of early voting in '08; they won't get there in '12, but if they get to 50,000, they may have enough of a firewall to win the state for President Obama. Remember Obama ended up winning Clark by 123,000 votes in '08 -- so it was 50 percent above his end-of-early-vote margin. And he won the state by 12 points. If he wins Clark by substantially less this year, if he doesn't get killed in Washoe, he will win again, but by a smaller margin.