Mark Mellman, who hit 2010 on the nose for Harry Reid, says President Obama is up 6 in Nevada, 50-44.
His memo on the poll for the Democratic front group, Americans United for Change, is posted here. Key stat: Obama is winning Washoe, which would kill Romney's chances. He's up 11 in Clark, according to Mellman's poll.
He's also crushing Romney among Hispanics by a 2-to-1 margin int he poll by Mellman, who is Rep. Shelley Berkley's pollster in the U.S. Senate race.
Mellman: "With the president ahead in every Nevada poll since October 9th, he is quite likely to win this key state."
Republicans chafe at the Mellman mystique, but the more 2012 looks like 2010 and not 2008, the more his numbers should be heeded. Mellman knows turnout patterns in this state, and a poll is only as good as its model of the electorate.